CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-05-21T00:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-05-21T00:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20281/-1
CME Note: The likely source is an eruption from AR3011 (N18W31) which was associated with a C5.2 class flare occurring around 2022-05-20T23:30Z. After the brightening, filament material is ejected to the north and west as seen in SDO AIA 304A. Soon after this eruption, a complex signature is observed in SOHO running difference imagery with a large, faint and fast shock on the order of >1000 km/s emanating to the north which may or may not be associated with this flare. UPDATE (2022-05-24) from LASSOS Team: There is a structure in solar wind beginning before 2022-05-23T18:00Z with some elements of a weak flux rope signature (namely, smooth rotation), but it is very short and there is no magnetic amplification and the solar wind density, speed, and temperature are inconclusive. There may be a Solar Sector Boundary Crossing in this signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-23T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Event id="268".Lead Time: 36.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-05-21T18:07Z
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